Print
Discuss
Send to friend
RSS feedsMany of the major mobile phone companies reported operating losses last year, and One2One and Orange have led the way in raising the cost of pre-pay mobile phones in order to generate revenue. Although this is partly due to a general slowdown in the market, much of the hardship has been self-inflicted by the elcos' race to launch the third generation of mobile phones and deliver mobile nternet.
It is generally accepted that money was thrown at the project with injudicious aste, but the problems faced go deeper than that. In order to pay for itself, his next generation of technology will have to become as popular as the mobile hone, and so far there has been no popular demand for the mobile internet.
Telecommunication companies hope this will change, but it is likely to remain rounded for two reasons. Firstly, with doubts expressed about the economics of he next-generation phones, the existing technology is about as inspiring as a 1 lottery jackpot to the average user. Secondly, these new innovations will have to go some in terms of performance and cost to tear users away from the one mobile communication innovation that has exceeded everyone's expectations - SMS text messaging.
3G or not 3G?
If the crime of the 20th century was the great train robbery, then the 21st century equivalent was the Government's auction for licences to run the Universal Mobile Telecommunications System. Popularly known as the third generation of mobile phones (3G), the mobile phone networks forked out a staggering £22.47 billion between them. The argument was that, once available, 3G phones would offer multimedia services that would become indispensable and quickly recoup the initial cost. But those heady days are gone, and the chances of 3G taking off this year have crumbled.
Before the mobile phone operators can make a penny from the 3G services, they have to build the network to run them on. Orange, the mobile phone arm of France Telecom, initially set 2002 as a target, but now believes 2004 is more realistic. In an increasingly farcical situation, Nokia has now lent Orange the capital it requires to pay Nokia to build its 3G network.
Hutchison Telecom shelled out £4.38 billion for its licence and has now paid Nokia £3.9 billion to build the network. The decision to fork out so readily for a 3G licence now appears to have been a case of lemmings and cliffs.
Whatever happened to Wap?
Even if 3G is only delayed, making the money back may not be easy. History teaches us that there is not sufficient demand for a widespread wireless internet.
Wap should have been a surefire success. It arrived as mobile phone sales were rocketing and users seemed open to new services. Nevertheless, it did not match the hype. By March this year Orange boasted 700,000 active Wap users out of a total of 31 million customers. With over 20 million mobile phones sold and 15 million people online, this is not because the public are averse to the internet.
The favourite excuse of vested interests is that the quality of the Wap service was always going to be poor as it relied on GSM technology, and the marketers should not have created unrealistic expectations. However, these same people will tell you that the arrival of General Packet Radio Service (GPRS) will provide the revolution everyone has been waiting for. Without constructing a new network, it can support a multimedia wireless network with download speeds more than four times Wap's 9.6Kbits/sec.
But even these claims are on shaky ground. BT Cellnet no longer sees 43Kbits/sec as an achievable speed, opting for a more conservative 27Kbits/sec. Nokia can only promise that GPRS will be available in multiples of 13Kbits/sec, meaning that at base level it barely outperforms Wap.
Improved text life
When the technology is good enough the mobile internet will become just as ubiquitous as the mobile phone, but currently the mass of users are rejecting the information services offered by Wap as they have a cheaper and more flexible alternative in SMS. It is due to this communications phenomenon that 3G will have to be extraordinarily special to reach the volumes needed to pay for itself.
The GSM Association expects 200 billion SMS messages to be sent worldwide this year. In December last year the total was 15 billion, of which 756 million came from the UK. If SMS is the football of mobile communication, then Wap is the polo: played by very few and supported by an elite.
The latest news and information can be received via SMS, but the main attractions of the medium are cost, flexibility and the way it liberates the user. Police use SMS to harass mobile phone thieves, the National Blood Service to remind donors, and Rebecca Fyfe recently texted her boyfriend to say the ferry she was on had lost power and was drifting in high seas off the coast of Bali. He raised the alarm and everyone was saved.
So organic is the SMS phenomenon that it is has evolved into a kind of sub-culture with its own unique language. For example: ruok? (are you OK?). No :~~) (I've got a cold).
The vast majority of mobile phone users do not want to be overwhelmed by information and options - they like the control text messages give them and the necessity to keep things brief. SMS perfectly suits the social trend to have everything packaged into manageable chunks.
Just as importantly, text messaging is affordable. Combine this with ease of use, and it has been able to cross the most stubborn of socio-economic divides. A recent survey by the Consumer Internet Confidence Index even claimed SMS was affecting the use of email.
As the low demand for Wap has demonstrated, the next generation of internet phones will have to go a long way to drag the majority of the population away from such a malleable mouthpiece.
See also:
All Mobile Technology
del.icio.us
Digg this
reddit!
