Internet commerce was expected to be huge by now. But it hasn't taken off. For a long time Dell, the direct PC supplier, was touted as the big Internet shopping success story. Then it emerged that Dell was counting every sale that had anything to do with the Internet as an online sale. That meant even if someone used the Dell site to look up the phone number it was counted as an Internet sale.
Of course, eventually e-commerce, as it's often called, will be huge, but quite a few things will have to change first. First off, the Internet needs to get faster - become an information highway rather than an overgrown footpath. Next, Internet access needs to spread around the house - out of the study into the places where people write shopping lists, like the kitchen or the living room. It's no coincidence that the awful QVC home shopping TV channel has been a success. People slumped in front of the television and spoon-fed a series of consumer durables eventually reach for their credit cards. Once the Web is integrated into televisions, in place of Teletext, Internet shopping is bound to take off.
Unsurprisingly, the things which have sold best on the Internet so far are the ones that suit the medium: software, computers, air tickets, books and flowers. But in the future the range will spread. Not content with having driven small butchers, bakers and candlestick makers out of business, supermarkets are starting to eye up the Internet as the next big thing.
Partly a market opportunity, it's also a move with one cynical eye on the political climate. It's no longer acceptable to encourage people to hop into their cars and drive to huge out-of-town superstores. By delivering to people's homes the supermarkets can expand market share and keep the government happy.
I tried out the Tesco's home shopping service, which is being piloted around the country, loved it and thought I'd be using it every week. Strangely I haven't. I'm just not well organised or patient enough. There are little details that aren't quite right yet. You see lists of products, not pictures of them, and often end up with tins of tuna the wrong size, or the wrong kind of milk. But let's face it, it is early days yet. Over time Tesco's will sort out the details and children everywhere will laugh at their parents' clumsy attempts to order things over the Internet.